Will Katie Hobbs’ “Pay-to-Play” Troubles Boost Trump in Arizona?

The Democrat Governor is caught up in an ugly scheme that looks suspiciously like rewarding a major campaign donor

With an ad campaign, a nonprofit with ties to the Republican Governors Association jumped on the news that the Arizona Attorney General’s office was investigating a possible pay-to-play scheme orchestrated under Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. 

The political aftershocks of the investigation by Attorney General Kris Mayes, a Democrat, at the request of a Republican state senator could not only further boost prospects for Donald Trump in the Grand Canyon State—he’s already leading Joe Biden in the latest polls—but also Republican Kari Lake, locked in an all-important U.S. Senate race that could determine majority rule there.

TV and radio ads bought by State Solutions capitalized on a report in the Arizona Republic that a business that operates foster homes, Sunshine Residential Homes—a major Hobbs donor—recently received a 60 percent increase on its daily child rate through the Arizona Department of Child Safety.

The Republic reported that Hobbs received $200,000 after her election 2022 win, with half going to her inauguration fund. Sunshine Residential Homes gave the Arizona Democratic Party and the Hobbs campaign another $200,000 during her 2022 run for governor. Prior to the donations, Sunshine was denied an increase. Other providers received no increases, the report said.

(RELATED: Adrian Fontes Brings Biden’s Government GOTV Machine to Arizona Universities)

The ads targeting Hobbs ran for a week, according to the Center Square: 

“Pay-to-play so brazen, Democrat Attorney General Kris Mayes has launched a criminal investigation,” the ad said.

“Tell Hobbs to cooperate — and cut the corruption,” it continued. 

One of the state’s leading political strategists and pollsters, Chuck Coughlin, of HighGround Inc., called the news, and potential scandal, a “substantive” issue for Hobbs.

“There has to be a paper trail with this and through looking at that the investigation will arrive at the reason why the deal was made,” Coughlin said. “And that will either shed a lot of light on this or very quickly shut it down.”

Commenting more broadly on the Hobbs administration, Coughlin said that administration officials were relatively new to governing.

“Hobbs has almost no seasoned veterans in her two-year-old administration,” Coughlin said. “The point people on her policy are from her campaign.”

Hobbs’ office said it did nothing wrong, and that politics is driving the investigation.

The AG’s office would not comment while the investigation is ongoing.

The state had been trending well for the Democrats. In 2022, voters elected Hobbs, Mayes, and Democrat Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. But the pay-for-play development could not only boost Trump but hurt Hobbs’ chances in 2026.

Less clear is how it might affect the state legislative races in November. The Republicans have a one-seat advantage in each chamber, but all 60 House seats and 30 Senate seats are on the ballot, and the Democrats have a real shot at taking control. 

Most state legislative races are not competitive, Coughlin said, but the majority of the ones that are favor the Democrats, particularly in the Senate. This, even though enthusiasm for Biden, especially among younger voters, is flat at best. The Democrats are working hard to change that.

“One thing the Democrats are good at is the ground game,” Coughlin said. “And they are focusing on organized labor and abortion to get the troops out.”

It was Hobbs who launched a campaign to repeal an 1864 law, restored by a state Supreme Court ruling in April, that called for prison time for doctors who performed abortions in cases where the life of the mother was not at risk. The legislature quickly approved a repeal of the law—a measure that nearly all Republicans opposed—and Hobbs signed the bill in early May.  

Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe, accounts for 63 percent of voters statewide. The makeup of the electorate statewide is 36 percent Republican, 32 percent Democrat, and 28 percent independent. In the last two elections, the majority of the unaffiliated voters broke for the Democrats.

In 2020, Trump lost Arizona to Biden by a little over 10,000 votes, but a recent compilation of polls shows Trump leading Biden by just under 5 percent.

An AARP poll has Lake in a statistical tie with Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego for the open Senate seat—she’s behind 3 points in the poll that has a margin of error of 4 points.

Illegal immigration is a big boost for Trump but Coughlin cautions Republicans not to rely too heavily on immigration alone.

“Arizona voters are very sophisticated when it goes to immigration,” Coughlin said. “They have been dealing with it for years. And a lot of business goes back and forth between Arizona and Mexico.”

Arizona primary election day is July 30. General election day is November 5.

Whit Kennedy, originally from the Philadelphia area, has over 20 years of experience covering politics and social issues

(MORE ARIZONA: Katie Hobbs Blocks Second Amendment, Fights Against Campus Carry Legislation)